0x3197992b5a6532d0edeabde132fa94e579c1ce7b
0x3197992b5a6532d0edeabde132fa94e579c1ce7b
- Realised P&L
- $2.69
- Volume
- $168.93
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $2.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.615 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.185 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.036 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.32at 0.237WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 26?
- +$3.32at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$2.10at 0.329Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 19:19 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 20:15 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:10 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 04:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:22 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:41 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 08:05 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:56 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:54 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 10:55 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 02:54 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 13:13 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:33 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |