0x318bf3775a8de43ac803cfede45f62e256e3a7ec
0x318bf3775a8de43ac803cfede45f62e256e3a7ec
- Realised P&L
- $-37.22
- Volume
- $377.59
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $1.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "ICE" during his rally in Oklahoma? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.755 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Trump say "Reagan" during his rally in Oklahoma? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.765 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.08at 0.380Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 13, 2026?
- +$3.79at 0.380Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
- +$3.02at 0.372Will Infosys (INFY) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$2.60at 0.490Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?
- +$2.28at 0.470Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-11 17:17 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.992 | $3.21 |
| 05-11 17:17 | Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.41 |
| 05-11 17:17 | Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | SELL | 0.073 | $0.31 |
| 05-11 17:17 | Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.04 |
| 05-04 08:28 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 04-21 10:34 | Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.83 |
| 04-20 12:32 | Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2999999118 | $1.58 |
| 04-20 12:22 | Will Infosys (INFY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3599998874 | $1.68 |
| 04-02 10:02 | Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | BUY | 0.3799999083 | $2.32 |
| 03-28 15:23 | Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.649999961 | $2.50 |
| 03-28 15:12 | Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.709999787 | $2.50 |
| 03-28 15:06 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $2.50 |
| 03-27 14:13 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.4609999425 | $2.50 |
| 03-27 14:08 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $350-$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.3689999477 | $2.50 |
| 03-27 14:03 | US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | BUY | 0.4599999522 | $2.50 |