SmitS55
0x3161321ef91341566d54b8afe1447864a8fb623d
- Realised P&L
- $-9.4k
- Volume
- $722.9k
- Markets traded
- 11,179
- Open portfolio
- $5.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11,179
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration8.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.445 | 0.435 | $4.35 | −$0.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.070 | $1.12 | +$0.32 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET · Down | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.52 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET · Up | 0.142 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.62 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET · Down | 0.917 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.35 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET · Up | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.75 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET · Down | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.61 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET · Up | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$733.06at 0.436Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
- +$288.66at 0.411Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
- +$253.47at 0.473Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
- +$251.16at 0.462Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
- +$248.02at 0.745Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 18:52 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.4493 | $2.25 |
| 09-30 18:52 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.80 |
| 09-30 18:28 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 09-30 08:44 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.076 | $0.68 |
| 09-30 08:41 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.119 | $1.07 |
| 09-30 08:40 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.69 | $6.90 |
| 09-28 09:07 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.41 |
| 09-28 07:31 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.61 | $3.10 |
| 09-27 08:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | SELL | 0.96 | $14.40 |
| 09-27 08:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 09-27 08:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 09-27 08:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.74 | $3.70 |
| 09-27 08:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 09-27 08:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 09-27 08:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |