RagnarTest3
0x3160c33655103cd541c960a6a6207125bf830008
- Realised P&L
- $-71.72
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $0.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.003 | $0.14 | −$5.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.76at 0.869MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$-0.11at 0.922Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30?
- +$-0.31at 0.718Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?
- +$-0.57at 0.081Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$-0.64at 0.232Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-30 15:19 | Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6091036415 | $8.70 |
| 05-30 15:18 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.067 | $9.18 |
| 05-30 15:18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $5.46 |
| 05-21 14:05 | Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.0350878055 | $2.86 |
| 05-21 14:04 | Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.1107034354 | $15.00 |
| 05-21 14:02 | Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $8.50 |
| 05-21 14:01 | Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? | BUY | 0.1269934225 | $12.00 |
| 05-21 13:59 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $13.54 |
| 05-21 13:58 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? | BUY | 0.3099999903 | $14.99 |
| 05-21 13:55 | Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | SELL | 0.1661821185 | $8.05 |
| 05-21 13:52 | Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.206232474 | $9.99 |
| 05-21 13:50 | Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list? | SELL | 0.47 | $4.12 |
| 05-21 13:49 | Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list? | BUY | 0.5699999555 | $5.00 |
| 05-20 17:33 | Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k? | SELL | 0.68 | $3.87 |
| 05-20 17:33 | Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.99 |