ocpna
0x31060e9b2c0703d6009154e38092d475b00cd672
- Realised P&L
- $24.4k
- Volume
- $1.00M
- Markets traded
- 399
- Open portfolio
- $35.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded399
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.0kat 0.271Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$4.1kat 0.925Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$3.5kat 0.478Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$1.8kat 0.580Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?
- +$831.73at 0.820Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 04:01 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $149.00 |
| 11-02 03:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.7099999998 | $300.00 |
| 11-02 02:29 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.2999999996 | $80.00 |
| 11-02 02:29 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.2999999994 | $100.00 |
| 11-02 02:03 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4099999816 | $8.00 |
| 11-02 02:03 | Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.17 | $20.40 |
| 11-02 01:58 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 11-02 01:56 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.2599999991 | $50.00 |
| 11-02 01:47 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.2599999997 | $200.00 |
| 11-02 01:37 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4899999992 | $100.00 |
| 10-28 20:16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.92 | $368.00 |
| 10-28 20:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-28 20:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9199999998 | $500.00 |
| 10-28 20:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9199999994 | $800.00 |
| 10-28 20:01 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9199999998 | $1.0k |