ocpna
0x31060e9b2c0703d6009154e38092d475b00cd672
- Realised P&L
- $25.1k
- Volume
- $979.7k
- Markets traded
- 363
- Open portfolio
- $23.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded363
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.0kat 0.271Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$4.1kat 0.925Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$3.5kat 0.478Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$1.8kat 0.580Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?
- +$831.73at 0.820Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 21:47 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be 320,000 or more? | BUY | 0.0143422761 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:14 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 18:17 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.1578868951 | $9.00 |
| 09-15 18:17 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 17:54 | Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.044 | $0.18 |
| 09-14 17:53 | Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.0979654392 | $17.32 |
| 09-14 17:52 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.1419999984 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 17:36 | Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 09-13 17:21 | Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.618 | $30.90 |
| 09-10 22:01 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 16:42 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 09-10 16:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 16:37 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999999 | $500.00 |
| 09-10 16:34 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999999 | $1000.00 |
| 09-09 19:11 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |