0x30f1db1459b6a983cd90e68d9674fbf2cffb3bc6
- Realised P&L
- $1.69
- Volume
- $594.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $57.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.895 | $14.32 | −$0.08 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.876 | 0.872 | $12.21 | −$0.06 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.793 | 0.915 | $10.98 | +$1.47 |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.792 | $5.55 | +$2.05 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.670 | 0.925 | $4.63 | +$1.27 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.905 | $4.53 | +$0.13 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.085 | $4.00 | −$5.07 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.095 | $1.04 | −$1.44 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.075 | $0.38 | −$0.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.10at 0.500Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
- +$0.36at 0.116Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
- +$0.30at 0.210Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- +$0.24at 0.720Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.21at 0.847Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 07:46 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 07-10 10:06 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.64 |
| 07-04 17:12 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $14.40 |
| 07-02 03:57 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $2.09 |
| 07-01 10:32 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.52 |
| 06-28 04:53 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.932 | $5.59 |
| 06-25 02:27 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 06-22 17:56 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.051 | $1.02 |
| 06-20 17:55 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 06-16 16:45 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $5.46 |
| 06-13 15:15 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 06-11 14:46 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.847 | $4.23 |
| 06-08 08:31 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.876 | $12.26 |
| 06-06 05:55 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 06-02 06:36 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.44 |