PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

qnicholson

0x30d957fa77e66638b9597ce5dc75e42b1e454391

Realised P&L
$-35.06
Volume
$21.9k
Markets traded
87
Open portfolio
$49.48

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded87
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration71.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration38.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? · Yes0.7500.480$19.08−$10.73
Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? · Yes0.7400.499$15.45−$7.44
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · No0.6000.615$14.94+$0.36

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
01-31 13:40Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January?BUY0.999$4.00
01-30 15:48Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?BUY0.998$5.97
01-30 15:32Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?BUY0.999$11.23
01-30 12:51Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January?BUY0.999$16.98
01-30 12:13Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January?BUY0.999$38.84
12-30 09:18Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?BUY0.999$10.80
12-30 01:17Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.9969999995$3.92
12-30 00:15Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?BUY0.999$4.63
12-29 23:21Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?BUY0.9929999999$23.24
12-29 18:58Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?BUY0.9959999895$33.78
10-30 23:03Will Solana dip to $120 in October?BUY0.999$21.02
10-30 21:55Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?BUY0.999$22.76
10-30 18:03Will Solana reach $240 in October?BUY0.998$17.47
09-29 17:20Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?BUY0.999$19.70
09-29 03:00Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30?BUY0.9949999727$14.75