qnicholson
0x30d957fa77e66638b9597ce5dc75e42b1e454391
- Realised P&L
- $-35.06
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $49.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.480 | $19.08 | −$10.73 |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.499 | $15.45 | −$7.44 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.615 | $14.94 | +$0.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.70at 0.613Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
- +$4.23at 0.789Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$3.18at 0.470Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
- +$2.68at 0.490Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
- +$2.54at 0.999Solana all time high by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:40 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.00 |
| 01-30 15:48 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.97 |
| 01-30 15:32 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.23 |
| 01-30 12:51 | Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.98 |
| 01-30 12:13 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.84 |
| 12-30 09:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.80 |
| 12-30 01:17 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9969999995 | $3.92 |
| 12-30 00:15 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.63 |
| 12-29 23:21 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $23.24 |
| 12-29 18:58 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9959999895 | $33.78 |
| 10-30 23:03 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.02 |
| 10-30 21:55 | Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.76 |
| 10-30 18:03 | Will Solana reach $240 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.47 |
| 09-29 17:20 | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.70 |
| 09-29 03:00 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999727 | $14.75 |