0x30C0702781f9aAFeDb09A4e0421aacFdE19BcdA7-1761369986129
0x30c0702781f9aafedb09a4e0421aacfde19bcda7
- Realised P&L
- $-18.82
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $2.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.095 | $2.85 | −$15.15 |
| Will Cirkut win Producer of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? · No | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.75at 0.850Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$9.92at 0.934Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$7.20at 0.600Will Erik Van Rooyen win the World Wide Technology Championship?
- +$7.08at 0.600Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?
- +$4.00at 0.700Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-29 22:31 | Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year? | SELL | 0.997 | $5.14 |
| 12-29 22:31 | Will Dijon win Producer of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.52 |
| 12-29 22:30 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.9951452393 | $100.86 |
| 12-04 09:42 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7599999514 | $8.75 |
| 11-28 07:05 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7099999917 | $13.75 |
| 11-25 22:41 | Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | SELL | 0.949 | $13.75 |
| 11-25 22:38 | Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? | BUY | 0.060551105 | $7.94 |
| 11-23 22:08 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999917 | $10.80 |
| 11-19 22:11 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9299999837 | $22.81 |
| 11-17 21:22 | Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 11-15 16:51 | Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? | SELL | 0.954 | $19.08 |
| 11-14 17:55 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 11-13 06:29 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 11-13 03:05 | US bank failure by March 31? | BUY | 0.7199997408 | $2.00 |
| 11-13 03:04 | US bank failure by March 31? | BUY | 0.5059457427 | $2.60 |