CopeHard
0x30beb220894faf906f54ffed3c0652c5848d9c47
- Realised P&L
- $-332.45
- Volume
- $13.1k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $0.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.030 | $0.64 | −$0.09 |
| Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) · Tochigi SC | 0.971 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$301.01 |
| Spread: Israel (-2.5) · Israel | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.57 |
| Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) · Northern Ireland | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.54 |
| Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) · Al Ettifaq Saudi Club | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.35at 0.932Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5)
- +$33.71at 0.951Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5)
- +$3.78at 0.977Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
- +$2.75at 0.977Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
- +$2.48at 0.025Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 02:57 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.977 | $410.34 |
| 07-02 11:53 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $17.40 |
| 05-18 08:10 | Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.93 | $688.20 |
| 05-18 08:04 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | SELL | 0.944 | $9.44 |
| 05-18 06:21 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.947 | $695.10 |
| 05-15 07:51 | Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5) | BUY | 0.95 | $659.30 |
| 05-15 07:48 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.968 | $7.55 |
| 05-15 06:24 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $663.48 |
| 05-14 08:00 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.027 | $13.72 |
| 05-14 08:00 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.027 | $19.71 |
| 04-08 07:51 | Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.971 | $301.01 |
| 04-08 05:39 | Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? | BUY | 0.982 | $301.47 |
| 04-07 08:29 | Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.92 | $301.76 |
| 04-03 08:25 | Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $298.96 |