AuspiciousArt
0x30b7b487e35fb985427bfa2d85194207158de81c
- Realised P&L
- $30.3k
- Volume
- $1.20M
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $40.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.808 | 0.945 | $25.5k | +$3.7k |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.859 | 0.865 | $4.3k | +$32.21 |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.850 | $4.3k | +$200.00 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.808 | 0.986 | $3.8k | +$680.29 |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.970 | $2.5k | +$76.53 |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.005 | $25.00 | −$70.00 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.869Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?
- +$3.0kat 0.982Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$2.5kat 0.967Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.948Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$2.1kat 0.967Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 23:37 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8577563104 | $2.8k |
| 08-26 17:49 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.4k |
| 08-26 17:46 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.1k |
| 06-23 20:21 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.984 | $157.10 |
| 06-23 20:19 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9862272886 | $8.5k |
| 06-23 20:12 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9898126337 | $2.6k |
| 06-23 20:08 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $500.96 |
| 06-23 20:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $12.0k |
| 06-23 20:07 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.991 | $2.7k |
| 06-23 20:06 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.0k |
| 06-17 06:03 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9669681667 | $11.6k |
| 06-11 16:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9816776375 | $11.8k |
| 06-06 06:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.9777375295 | $31.3k |
| 06-06 05:50 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.2k |
| 06-06 05:49 | Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.6k |