Eargherah
0x30aa29eb9ac88f0e55f33800061b373879f52bdd
- Realised P&L
- $-13.7k
- Volume
- $640.6k
- Markets traded
- 150
- Open portfolio
- $910.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded150
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.032 | $895.48 | −$7.3k |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.029 | $14.75 | −$55.25 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.4k |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.9k |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$900.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.120Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.398Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$2.3kat 0.175Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.356Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
- +$1.8kat 0.292Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-27 19:21 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $4.9k |
| 03-20 08:40 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $615.51 |
| 03-20 08:40 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | SELL | 0.016 | $615.50 |
| 03-19 09:19 | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY | 0.0794611017 | $900.97 |
| 03-19 09:18 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | SELL | 0.0234069951 | $900.44 |
| 03-17 20:22 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.033 | $10.00 |
| 03-17 20:22 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | SELL | 0.058 | $10.46 |
| 03-17 18:41 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.1595804282 | $5.1k |
| 03-17 18:37 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | SELL | 0.1166743007 | $130.93 |
| 03-17 18:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $917.88 |
| 03-17 18:35 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.036 | $205.20 |
| 03-17 18:35 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? | SELL | 0.0710614409 | $75.19 |
| 03-17 18:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.2909994873 | $2.9k |
| 03-17 18:34 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $876.19 |
| 03-17 09:03 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $248.00 |