Stuhlmann-Mao
0x3093fe5a949d5e9b8f222f56eee4a55c429a46e8
- Realised P&L
- $3.21
- Volume
- $835.49
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $52.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.608 | 0.625 | $11.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.988 | $10.27 | +$0.27 |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.977 | 0.978 | $10.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Montana? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.998 | $8.18 | +$3.18 |
| Will Trump say "Coal" or "Diesel" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.999 | $6.24 | +$1.24 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.915 | $4.92 | −$0.08 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.885 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.71at 0.757Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$3.29at 0.502Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
- +$2.66at 0.530US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.50at 0.800US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
- +$2.04at 0.710North Korea missile launch by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 09:58 | Plague pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9769999555 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 09:57 | Will Trump say "Coal" or "Diesel" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 09:57 | Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Montana? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 09:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 09:49 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6199999864 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 12:41 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | BUY | 0.4899999894 | $3.24 |
| 05-04 08:23 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9779996857 | $2.29 |
| 05-04 08:21 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 04-14 11:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.8999999602 | $11.31 |
| 04-01 08:29 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.65 | $2.17 |
| 04-01 08:28 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 04-01 08:25 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 04-01 08:23 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.9099995859 | $2.00 |
| 04-01 08:21 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 15:44 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.04 |