ilyiaa
0x307bc2268068e8b25cc183c515e24d152319f692
- Realised P&L
- $-136.29
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $172.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.375 | $172.50 | −$213.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.07at 0.868Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$38.19at 0.905Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
- +$23.10at 0.752Arsenal wins the Premier League?
- +$12.00at 0.960Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
- +$6.40at 0.968Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-03 08:57 | Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8680431191 | $401.76 |
| 01-12 08:00 | Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31? | BUY | 0.9049398721 | $363.57 |
| 01-12 07:59 | EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9439663248 | $363.57 |
| 01-02 11:05 | EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9884481384 | $380.71 |
| 12-02 08:57 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $376.52 |
| 11-24 12:12 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%? | SELL | 0.9869989 | $98.70 |
| 11-11 07:29 | Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.981 | $164.63 |
| 11-05 06:44 | Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.9799999975 | $164.47 |
| 11-05 06:43 | Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.987 | $2.1k |
| 11-04 12:19 | Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.988 | $2.1k |
| 10-28 08:28 | Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? | BUY | 0.9939999983 | $123.72 |
| 10-28 08:27 | Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.99 | $123.72 |
| 10-23 10:23 | Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.996 | $124.47 |
| 10-23 10:21 | Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.5k |
| 10-23 09:36 | Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.5k |