0x30685eF2B62ec87c25Fd43fB2CF2b1426d715c71-1767779709740
0x30685ef2b62ec87c25fd43fb2cf2b1426d715c71
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $51.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $414.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.040 | $414.75 | −$2.4k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET · Down | 0.289 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.78 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET · Up | 0.442 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.48 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET · Up | 0.285 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET · Down | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.54 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET · Down | 0.369 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$230.71at 0.856Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
- +$156.11at 0.470Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$127.63at 0.703Army Black Knights vs. Bucknell Bison
- +$97.84at 0.750Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
- +$23.71at 0.656Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-04 21:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET | BUY | 0.3399999596 | $4.92 |
| 02-04 21:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET | SELL | 0.67 | $5.11 |
| 02-04 21:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET | BUY | 0.3299999444 | $2.49 |
| 02-04 19:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 02-04 19:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | SELL | 0.08 | $2.28 |
| 02-04 19:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 02-04 19:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 02-04 19:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | SELL | 0.11 | $1.38 |
| 02-04 19:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 02-04 19:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | SELL | 0.1 | $1.43 |
| 02-04 19:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 02-04 19:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | SELL | 0.16 | $2.56 |
| 02-04 19:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $0.99 |
| 02-04 19:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $0.99 |
| 02-04 18:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $0.99 |