Manislandguy
0x30528a263072ee7a8d1a5a6b12b8e9ed02b5d389
- Realised P&L
- $145.22
- Volume
- $67.9k
- Markets traded
- 197
- Open portfolio
- $49.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded197
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Solana be less than $70 on October 10? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $49.77 | −$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.72at 0.914Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$10.12at 0.994Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?
- +$8.00at 0.200Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
- +$7.20at 0.280Will Villarreal vs. Real Betis end in a draw?
- +$7.09at 0.220Will Como vs. Cagliari end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:55 | Will the price of Solana be less than $70 on October 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-18 13:57 | Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on September 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 08-12 05:15 | Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on August 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $224.78 |
| 08-12 05:15 | Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on August 14? | BUY | 0.9986865204 | $318.58 |
| 08-05 04:17 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on August 9? | BUY | 0.9962883946 | $426.40 |
| 07-28 02:44 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on July 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $541.46 |
| 07-24 04:55 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on July 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $541.46 |
| 07-15 07:17 | Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on July 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $214.78 |
| 07-15 07:17 | Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on July 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $214.78 |
| 07-08 06:57 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on July 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $410.29 |
| 07-05 06:54 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on July 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $228.77 |
| 07-05 06:54 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,100 on July 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $311.65 |
| 07-01 08:01 | Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on July 3? | BUY | 0.9985348837 | $214.68 |
| 07-01 08:00 | Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on July 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $324.68 |
| 06-24 08:13 | Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 26? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |