winesom
0x3034b5a37eef3aa86c7a713185829e93510add88
- Realised P&L
- $7.6k
- Volume
- $79.8k
- Markets traded
- 424
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded424
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.195 | $776.85 | +$195.86 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.235 | $763.69 | +$63.69 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.455 | $464.45 | +$114.45 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? · Yes | 0.317 | 0.365 | $287.94 | +$37.94 |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$398.68 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.697 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.504Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
- +$2.7kat 0.431Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- +$2.7kat 0.515Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.263Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.467Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 12:03 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 07-31 12:02 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2709720003 | $200.00 |
| 07-27 12:56 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1990726529 | $500.00 |
| 07-27 12:55 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999993 | $150.00 |
| 07-25 13:35 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12698425 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 19:20 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | BUY | 0.3169112189 | $250.00 |
| 07-24 12:29 | Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3502585424 | $150.00 |
| 07-24 12:24 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.342877935 | $350.00 |
| 07-24 12:22 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1256588226 | $131.00 |
| 07-23 12:44 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | SELL | 0.9718056949 | $2.1k |
| 07-10 11:08 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.267839999 | $124.00 |
| 07-10 11:07 | Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? | SELL | 0.0852287912 | $124.89 |
| 07-01 22:19 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.2615700409 | $452.12 |
| 06-23 13:13 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? | SELL | 0.0722065917 | $177.24 |
| 06-01 11:26 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? | BUY | 0.3909488998 | $500.00 |