winesom
0x3034b5a37eef3aa86c7a713185829e93510add88
- Realised P&L
- $5.7k
- Volume
- $91.0k
- Markets traded
- 428
- Open portfolio
- $442.49
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded428
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.135 | $137.80 | −$212.19 |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.070 | $126.57 | −$262.43 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? · Yes | 0.317 | 0.120 | $94.66 | −$155.34 |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.230 | $83.45 | −$48.55 |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$398.68 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.697 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by August 31? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$185.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.504Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
- +$2.7kat 0.431Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- +$2.7kat 0.515Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.263Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.467Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 14:22 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | BUY | 0.3638109353 | $132.00 |
| 09-06 13:36 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0304479082 | $68.57 |
| 09-06 13:36 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0367730202 | $63.69 |
| 08-19 17:02 | Will Russia capture Svitle by August 31? | BUY | 0.1217411979 | $85.00 |
| 08-19 17:01 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.2048141568 | $200.00 |
| 08-19 17:00 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0874151004 | $284.07 |
| 08-07 10:02 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.2272703501 | $189.00 |
| 08-07 10:00 | Will Russia capture Svitle by August 31? | BUY | 0.2000613004 | $100.00 |
| 08-07 09:54 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | SELL | 0.990444916 | $289.40 |
| 08-03 12:34 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.338809573 | $99.00 |
| 07-31 12:03 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 07-31 12:02 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2709720003 | $200.00 |
| 07-27 12:56 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1990726529 | $500.00 |
| 07-27 12:55 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999993 | $150.00 |
| 07-25 13:35 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12698425 | $100.00 |