0x30201de2497F7Dab080be6394DAeaf8B73A458F9-1769257288386
0x30201de2497f7dab080be6394daeaf8b73a458f9
- Realised P&L
- $43.1k
- Volume
- $402.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.075 | $2.9k | −$824.07 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.392 | 0.345 | $2.4k | −$328.68 |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$699.94 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$898.22 |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.99 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$599.98 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$299.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.2kat 0.252US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.338US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$976.28at 0.515US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$963.81at 0.475US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$92.02at 0.339US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 14:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $119.00 |
| 07-09 14:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 07-09 12:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0998607941 | $100.00 |
| 07-04 07:06 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.39 | $312.00 |
| 07-03 21:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0783676796 | $500.00 |
| 07-03 21:18 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3984860519 | $800.00 |
| 07-03 21:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3899999995 | $500.00 |
| 07-03 21:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3899999995 | $500.00 |
| 07-03 21:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3899999993 | $300.00 |
| 07-03 21:16 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3899999993 | $300.00 |
| 06-21 21:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.3k |
| 06-21 21:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $800.00 |
| 06-21 21:15 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $800.00 |
| 02-28 08:03 | US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.9971233396 | $8.8k |
| 02-28 08:03 | US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $5.0k |