.chat
0x2fdb5df2a326fdfad9ebd030cafe72359da88ffc
- Realised P&L
- $6.5k
- Volume
- $348.8k
- Markets traded
- 2,159
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,159
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.975 | $1.1k | +$415.20 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? · No | 0.846 | 0.987 | $355.44 | +$50.77 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.839 | 0.992 | $88.80 | +$13.66 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.692 | 0.975 | $34.66 | +$10.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.493Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.664Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.693Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
- +$896.11at 0.770US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$809.78at 0.557Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 11:08 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999994 | $32.33 |
| 10-20 11:08 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999996 | $46.96 |
| 10-20 10:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999969 | $6.35 |
| 10-20 10:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999984 | $5.88 |
| 10-20 10:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.969999997 | $6.46 |
| 10-20 10:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.97 | $6.69 |
| 10-20 10:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999975 | $7.74 |
| 10-20 10:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.969999997 | $6.46 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.610472542 | $695.33 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.8455848862 | $304.67 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9505285324 | $198.38 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999994 | $32.33 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.8653045685 | $109.10 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.7147229936 | $292.10 |
| 10-20 10:48 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.9699999998 | $85.77 |