0x2fd1d55ba73331c2a6e0af8e077533bc9bed60cc
0x2fd1d55ba73331c2a6e0af8e077533bc9bed60cc
- Realised P&L
- $-51.65
- Volume
- $640.83
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $59.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 5? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.270 | $44.36 | +$9.86 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 6? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.345 | $8.39 | +$3.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 6? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.320 | $2.51 | +$0.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 6? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.240 | $2.10 | +$0.43 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on October 6? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.215 | $2.03 | −$0.42 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 5? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.025 | $0.16 | −$0.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.08at 0.507Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
- +$0.05at 0.951Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$-0.19at 0.187Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$-1.06at 0.159Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
- +$-1.66at 0.127Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 06:38 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.2199999984 | $5.35 |
| 10-05 05:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.2599999626 | $1.25 |
| 10-05 04:59 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.2599999783 | $1.20 |
| 10-05 04:52 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 6? | BUY | 0.2 | $0.23 |
| 10-05 04:51 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 6? | BUY | 0.1899999842 | $1.44 |
| 10-05 02:04 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.2099999991 | $34.50 |
| 10-05 00:29 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.27 |
| 10-04 20:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 20:10 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.72 |
| 08-15 13:21 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.89 |
| 08-15 11:29 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 08-14 15:50 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.05 |
| 08-14 11:39 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9489997049 | $1.00 |
| 08-12 10:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.1299999797 | $5.25 |
| 08-12 10:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $1.36 |