0x2fc87d07e9a9f616656094f0e943bf42fdc1b2de
- Realised P&L
- $4.9k
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar25.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netanyahu say "Violence" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.453 | 0.625 | $344.58 | +$94.58 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.890 | $338.16 | +$49.40 |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) · Yes | 0.476 | 0.610 | $280.62 | +$61.42 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.322 | 0.285 | $195.79 | −$25.09 |
| Will Netanyahu say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.195 | $104.18 | +$45.41 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.105 | $48.85 | −$3.11 |
| Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.080 | $34.63 | −$12.44 |
| Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.013 | $10.82 | −$17.37 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-20? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.163Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
- +$2.71at 0.532Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-18?
- +$-9.60at 0.874Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$-10.70at 0.447US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$-16.00at 0.187Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 07:36 | Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) | BUY | 0.4764794599 | $219.20 |
| 09-21 07:35 | Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $200.00 |
| 09-20 11:51 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $43.02 |
| 09-20 11:02 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.7599999986 | $288.77 |
| 09-19 21:16 | Will Trump meet with Jens-Frederik Nielsen by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $9.80 |
| 09-19 14:21 | Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0338708433 | $28.19 |
| 09-19 13:57 | Will Netanyahu say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.11 | $58.77 |
| 09-19 13:21 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $119.99 |
| 09-19 11:02 | Will Netanyahu say "Violence" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.4534521509 | $250.00 |
| 09-19 10:54 | Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999999 | $200.00 |
| 09-19 09:48 | Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.3215283843 | $220.89 |
| 09-19 09:48 | Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.1116926384 | $51.97 |
| 09-19 07:52 | Will Trump meet with Jens-Frederik Nielsen by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5034692108 | $29.03 |
| 09-19 07:00 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $5.7k |
| 09-18 16:51 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-18? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.90 |