0x1F01C059E8449301A9EF5D9ec16e8659520645Dc-1758373365219
0x2fadb352cf75ce18d8c7818d30f59821dda89d04
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $43.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $163.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colorado State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes | 0.403 | 0.315 | $88.66 | −$24.69 |
| Will Mary Brascia / Christopher Haworth advance to the Round of 16 in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? · No | 0.300 | 1.000 | $50.00 | +$35.00 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 400,000 and 450,000? · Yes | 0.291 | 0.345 | $21.97 | +$3.45 |
| Will Honveer Singh Randhawa win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.024 | $1.51 | −$3.91 |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.003 | $1.16 | −$16.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.60at 0.049US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$12.83at 0.992Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez in September?
- +$9.93at 0.999Will Trump say "Slob" in September?
- +$9.92at 0.448Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000?
- +$9.84at 0.044Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 22:11 | Will Mary Brascia / Christopher Haworth advance to the Round of 16 in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Veolia Arizona Open? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 09-14 18:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.0420487062 | $22.10 |
| 09-14 18:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.0516614126 | $51.52 |
| 09-14 17:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.057 | $57.00 |
| 09-14 17:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.048 | $9.83 |
| 09-14 17:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.05 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 17:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.044982462 | $224.91 |
| 09-14 00:01 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000? | SELL | 0.44 | $31.82 |
| 09-12 14:37 | Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.39 | $50.74 |
| 09-12 01:56 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000? | SELL | 0.4957142857 | $34.70 |
| 09-12 01:56 | Will Colorado State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | SELL | 0.3549193548 | $44.01 |
| 09-12 01:55 | Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.055256476 | $6.46 |
| 09-10 19:03 | Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.101 | $6.06 |
| 09-10 19:03 | Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0995051954 | $12.07 |
| 09-10 19:02 | Will Michael Johnstone win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.73 |