darrellmartin
0x2f78ac9fc054c013b9c32e179e8c1804c5ce287c
- Realised P&L
- $-24.56
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $135.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on September 30, 2026? · No | 0.691 | 0.856 | $63.56 | +$12.24 |
| Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%? · No | 0.710 | 0.665 | $30.52 | −$2.07 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in September? · No | 0.640 | 0.951 | $17.24 | +$5.63 |
| Spread: Panthers (-2.5) · Panthers | 0.530 | 0.525 | $13.20 | −$0.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 26? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.520 | $11.41 | −$1.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.47at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 22?
- +$3.47at 0.677Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$2.53at 0.999Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April?
- +$1.64at 0.700Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
- +$0.51at 0.900Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:56 | Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.87 |
| 01-30 16:33 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January? | BUY | 0.9929999993 | $5.46 |
| 01-30 15:31 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.95 |
| 01-30 11:59 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.03 |
| 01-30 11:52 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $60.76 |
| 12-30 11:20 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.03 |
| 12-30 01:22 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.36 |
| 12-30 01:08 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999934 | $16.69 |
| 12-29 23:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999685 | $25.28 |
| 12-29 21:44 | Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999904 | $43.31 |
| 10-30 18:26 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.71 |
| 10-30 18:26 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.08 |
| 09-29 13:51 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | BUY | 0.9989999601 | $11.53 |
| 09-29 05:57 | Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.03 |
| 09-29 03:28 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $17.32 |