PolyBot

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Traders

caaeth

0x2f76fc670a0bc97cdcbe20823a20dab70f357bcc

Realised P&L
$4.0k
Volume
$174.8k
Markets traded
58
Open portfolio
$7.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded58
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration83.7% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample48 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.5000.955$2.1k+$1.0k
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · No0.5000.973$1.9k+$946.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.5300.543$868.80+$20.80
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4600.445$696.19$23.47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.6401.000$578.00+$208.08
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8300.945$472.49+$57.50
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.9800.982$204.01+$0.42
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No0.9480.983$107.09+$3.76
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5000.045$99.50$1.0k
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5000.027$54.00$946.00
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? · No0.9400.955$49.66+$0.78
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? · No0.9000.000$0.00$138.16
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? · Yes0.6300.000$0.00$63.00
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? · Yes0.5370.000$0.00$53.70
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00$78.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-11 01:00Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.45$675.00
09-11 00:57Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.46$685.40
09-11 00:56Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.46$46.00
09-11 00:55Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.46$678.27
09-11 00:55Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.53$848.00
09-11 00:54Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.98$203.59
09-11 00:54Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?BUY0.9$138.16
09-11 00:53Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.37$213.86
09-11 00:53Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.64$369.92
08-11 11:51Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.53$4.71
08-11 09:01Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?SELL0.88$29.54
08-11 09:01Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.5050667542$453.96
08-11 08:05Grok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026?SELL0.23$1.72
08-11 07:13Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?SELL0.1034664$10.35
08-11 07:13US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?SELL0.021$29.50