caaeth
0x2f76fc670a0bc97cdcbe20823a20dab70f357bcc
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $174.8k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $7.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.199US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$458.92at 0.223Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
- +$81.99at 0.089Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
- +$75.00at 0.250Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$54.52at 0.710Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 01:00 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.45 | $675.00 |
| 09-11 00:57 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $685.40 |
| 09-11 00:56 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 09-11 00:55 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $678.27 |
| 09-11 00:55 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.53 | $848.00 |
| 09-11 00:54 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.98 | $203.59 |
| 09-11 00:54 | Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? | BUY | 0.9 | $138.16 |
| 09-11 00:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $213.86 |
| 09-11 00:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.64 | $369.92 |
| 08-11 11:51 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $4.71 |
| 08-11 09:01 | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.88 | $29.54 |
| 08-11 09:01 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5050667542 | $453.96 |
| 08-11 08:05 | Grok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.72 |
| 08-11 07:13 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.1034664 | $10.35 |
| 08-11 07:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $29.50 |