fhfgsdhj3
0x2f4ae2284af00c2dd0c58aed5512936c76b91603
- Realised P&L
- $-89.54
- Volume
- $10.8k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $324.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $182.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in October? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $115.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.969 | $26.32 | +$1.32 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? · No | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.00at 0.400Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?
- +$18.00at 0.940Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$8.49at 0.620Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
- +$7.98at 0.604Manchester City wins the Premier League?
- +$7.21at 0.928Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 07:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9969727603 | $183.00 |
| 10-02 07:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in October? | BUY | 0.9979999993 | $115.00 |
| 09-23 05:53 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $173.00 |
| 09-18 13:10 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $90.00 |
| 09-18 13:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 13:09 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.9959999982 | $121.00 |
| 08-12 06:15 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $126.00 |
| 08-12 06:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $166.00 |
| 07-21 06:46 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $170.00 |
| 07-21 06:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July? | BUY | 0.997999992 | $125.00 |
| 06-02 04:50 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999896 | $80.00 |
| 06-02 04:49 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $210.00 |
| 05-26 08:23 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $260.00 |
| 05-12 15:24 | Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $150.00 |
| 05-12 15:22 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8939999978 | $18.00 |