Pilatuspirat
0x2f2c62967d8d5d0e262da724c29aec2d91d5fa0f
- Realised P&L
- $-29.30
- Volume
- $456.46
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $78.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? · No | 0.887 | 0.976 | $22.01 | +$2.01 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.655 | $21.48 | +$1.48 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.925 | $9.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will FC Lugano win the 2026-27 Swiss Super League? · Yes | 0.376 | 0.340 | $9.04 | −$0.96 |
| Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election? · No | 0.830 | 0.725 | $8.73 | −$1.26 |
| Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season? · Yes | 0.429 | 0.620 | $7.23 | +$2.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.42at 0.639Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
- +$7.64at 0.572Will FC Luzern win on 2026-09-02?
- +$1.08at 0.933Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18?
- +$0.94at 0.914Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-09?
- +$0.94at 0.914Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 06:39 | Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season? | BUY | 0.4289999873 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 06:44 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18? | BUY | 0.9299999975 | $15.00 |
| 09-15 14:23 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 07:06 | Will FC Lugano win the 2026-27 Swiss Super League? | BUY | 0.3762935089 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 07:37 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 10:15 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-09? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 12:29 | Will FC Luzern win on 2026-09-02? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 12:15 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | BUY | 0.9399999774 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 12:11 | Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 13:02 | Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.8869999631 | $20.00 |
| 06-15 08:57 | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.999 | $31.71 |
| 05-27 08:14 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $10.00 |
| 05-26 15:34 | Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 05-01 15:57 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 05-01 06:59 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY | 0.5189620716 | $10.00 |