Kraken12
0x2f2be24a68a8ede74fc4ce53730c3ab50cbc650b
- Realised P&L
- $870.67
- Volume
- $128.6k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $22.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.008Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$948.58at 0.051Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$751.91at 0.114Will Biden drop out on July 21?
- +$453.10at 0.184Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$400.89at 0.084Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 20:39 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 19:25 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.12 | $27.27 |
| 07-19 19:24 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0280533533 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 16:08 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0599999997 | $193.84 |
| 07-15 18:06 | Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina? | BUY | 0.08 | $35.00 |
| 07-14 20:34 | Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Spain? | BUY | 0.0989999966 | $25.00 |
| 07-14 20:23 | Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Spain? | BUY | 0.1439999989 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain? | SELL | 0.09 | $136.11 |
| 07-14 20:16 | Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain? | BUY | 0.0652918943 | $98.74 |
| 07-14 19:46 | France vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? | BUY | 0.08 | $49.60 |
| 07-11 21:37 | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England? | BUY | 0.0263992569 | $50.00 |
| 07-10 20:58 | Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY | 0.0362012783 | $40.00 |
| 07-07 20:29 | Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Colombia? | BUY | 0.089999998 | $40.00 |
| 07-07 17:36 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1499999976 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 17:36 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |