alphaalii
0x2f28c1d2d8c0aee287e9c05a0603274ff533ba03
- Realised P&L
- $43.8k
- Volume
- $1.08M
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $135.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.504 | 0.556 | $48.3k | +$4.6k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.415 | 0.790 | $35.4k | +$16.8k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.193 | $16.1k | −$598.48 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.625 | 0.934 | $13.0k | +$4.3k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.247 | $11.0k | −$803.10 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.936 | $8.6k | +$3.0k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.044 | $1.8k | −$49.24 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.065 | $1.3k | −$395.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.4kat 0.768Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- +$4.5kat 0.815Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch
- +$2.7kat 0.837GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$2.5kat 0.683Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch
- +$2.5kat 0.848o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 00:40 | Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:16 | Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8 | $43.80 |
| 10-29 12:55 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9635163956 | $3.7k |
| 10-29 10:01 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.963 | $664.47 |
| 10-29 09:12 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9651221208 | $2.2k |
| 10-29 09:12 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.967 | $2.0k |
| 10-29 07:02 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.961076639 | $1.0k |
| 10-29 05:05 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.964 | $93.51 |
| 10-29 04:39 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9672424242 | $1.3k |
| 10-29 03:17 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9306383098 | $2.3k |
| 10-29 02:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9342021039 | $4.6k |
| 10-29 02:57 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9546689433 | $4.1k |
| 10-29 02:25 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7018261079 | $1.2k |
| 10-29 00:03 | Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0494836983 | $91.05 |
| 10-28 10:36 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4199117647 | $142.77 |