alphaalii
0x2f28c1d2d8c0aee287e9c05a0603274ff533ba03
- Realised P&L
- $12.2k
- Volume
- $585.4k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $50.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.535 | $17.5k | −$5.7k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.548 | 0.455 | $12.4k | −$2.6k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.374 | 0.320 | $7.9k | −$1.3k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.098 | 0.186 | $4.8k | +$2.2k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.262 | $2.9k | −$383.94 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.223 | $2.4k | +$140.92 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.436 | 0.390 | $1.5k | −$175.28 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.171 | $483.80 | +$129.99 |
| Umia listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? · No | 0.897 | 0.885 | $212.13 | −$2.99 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.123 | 0.141 | $67.01 | +$8.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.815Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch
- +$3.5kat 0.735OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch?
- +$3.2kat 0.728Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?
- +$2.7kat 0.837GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$2.5kat 0.683Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 11:07 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $197.34 |
| 09-10 11:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.33 | $84.92 |
| 09-10 11:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.32 | $197.08 |
| 09-04 15:13 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5703147762 | $905.91 |
| 09-04 15:13 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6 | $34.20 |
| 09-04 15:12 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 09-04 15:12 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.62 | $96.10 |
| 09-04 15:12 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.63 | $18.90 |
| 09-04 03:13 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.55 | $107.25 |
| 09-04 03:13 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.56 | $265.99 |
| 09-04 03:12 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.57 | $262.20 |
| 09-02 12:44 | Umia FDV above $12M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.92 | $148.11 |
| 09-02 12:37 | Umia listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? | BUY | 0.9 | $161.63 |
| 09-02 12:37 | Umia listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? | BUY | 0.89 | $53.49 |
| 09-01 13:47 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5676405409 | $858.08 |