0x2f085e2f28c99612f7e0b241fd1124ed65271ac9
0x2f085e2f28c99612f7e0b241fd1124ed65271ac9
- Realised P&L
- $4.69
- Volume
- $58.34
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $11.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.620 | $2.29 | +$0.33 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.550 | $2.04 | +$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on September 29? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.585 | $1.98 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.488 | 0.475 | $1.90 | −$0.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.325 | $1.66 | −$0.28 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.230 | $1.02 | −$0.93 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 28? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.220 | $0.98 | −$0.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.87at 0.341Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 21?
- +$1.69at 0.542Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 21?
- +$1.56at 0.562Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 27?
- +$1.56at 0.562Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 21?
- +$-1.00at 0.402Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 05:36 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.95 |
| 09-28 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.53 | $1.96 |
| 09-27 09:49 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.4881047382 | $1.96 |
| 09-27 08:16 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.96 |
| 09-27 06:21 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.95 |
| 09-27 05:56 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.53 | $1.96 |
| 09-27 03:52 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 28? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.95 |
| 09-25 06:43 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on September 26? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.92 |
| 09-25 06:43 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.96 |
| 09-20 06:24 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.94 |
| 09-20 06:24 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.53 | $1.96 |
| 09-19 05:37 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.96 |
| 09-18 11:07 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.39 | $0.98 |
| 09-16 08:43 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.49 | $0.98 |