Madgefgbd
0x2ef470b639a12d8df3001d4fb09da25982286eca
- Realised P&L
- $-54.23
- Volume
- $11.2k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $18.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-14? · No | 0.740 | 1.000 | $11.00 | +$2.86 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.610 | $7.32 | +$1.32 |
| Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse · Tamara Korpatsch | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 25? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.56 |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.13 |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.95 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.87at 0.500Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- +$19.92at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
- +$14.97at 0.567Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?
- +$9.86at 0.671Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
- +$5.92at 0.718Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 08:34 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election? | BUY | 0.5 | $6.00 |
| 10-14 11:39 | Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-14? | BUY | 0.74 | $8.14 |
| 09-15 12:16 | AFC Ajax vs. Willem II Tilburg: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 08-25 03:15 | Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.57 | $19.95 |
| 08-18 08:24 | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.66 | $19.80 |
| 08-10 12:25 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.71 | $14.91 |
| 07-24 12:17 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.62 | $23.56 |
| 06-30 08:00 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.49 | $18.13 |
| 06-22 11:10 | Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.10 |
| 06-09 08:57 | Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse | BUY | 0.24 | $14.95 |
| 05-14 02:14 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? | BUY | 0.55 | $7.15 |
| 05-14 02:12 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? | BUY | 0.56 | $19.38 |
| 05-06 01:45 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.997 | $41.87 |
| 05-06 01:45 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 4-10? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 05-06 01:44 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.08 |