Lilian0129
0x2ed36f739dc5e9270a7e50f6360e3115cc5dccb0
- Realised P&L
- $-189.98
- Volume
- $36.8k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.895 | $2.2k | +$62.50 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.265 | $529.73 | −$129.93 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$867.18at 0.607Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$38.95at 0.966Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$8.85at 0.992Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$-9.03at 0.185Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-50.31at 0.063Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 10:35 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5949999999 | $1.3k |
| 07-08 04:34 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3279999996 | $536.74 |
| 07-08 03:03 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.187 | $561.12 |
| 07-05 06:19 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3579999996 | $526.71 |
| 07-05 05:10 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.059 | $551.31 |
| 07-02 10:26 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1809999998 | $543.12 |
| 07-02 10:25 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0609999999 | $570.00 |
| 04-05 11:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $1.1k |
| 03-15 13:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.1k |