theinvoice
0x2ece6ee4eaa86368a58835021c536616739035e8
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $201.8k
- Markets traded
- 202
- Open portfolio
- $692.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded202
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$823.98at 0.130Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- +$673.36at 0.210Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-02-25?
- +$465.99at 0.510Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$447.30at 0.550Will "Jamie" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)
- +$310.50at 0.500Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 5AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 05:34 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.20 |
| 04-27 08:41 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | SELL | 0.08 | $42.80 |
| 04-27 08:20 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $4.40 |
| 04-23 12:31 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.09 | $48.15 |
| 04-21 10:29 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.22 | $9.02 |
| 04-21 08:19 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $307.32 |
| 04-21 02:49 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.22 | $275.22 |
| 04-12 15:37 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $285.76 |
| 04-12 14:51 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $683.55 |
| 04-12 14:49 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $5.04 |
| 04-12 14:48 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $4.96 |
| 04-12 14:47 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $75.60 |
| 04-12 08:13 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $86.31 |
| 04-12 06:22 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $571.52 |
| 04-12 06:05 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.84 | $1.1k |