0x2ec98612916a078b76492204f756ae65cc09ef76
0x2ec98612916a078b76492204f756ae65cc09ef76
- Realised P&L
- $5.99
- Volume
- $167.23
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $13.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? · Yes | 0.837 | 0.979 | $5.42 | +$0.79 |
| Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.988 | $3.88 | +$0.46 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Roraima? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.985 | $1.52 | +$0.10 |
| Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%? · No | 0.810 | 0.865 | $1.14 | +$0.07 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.973 | $1.13 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.73at 0.569Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.50at 0.861Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- +$1.47at 0.730Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
- +$1.30at 0.779Will Renan Santos finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.81at 0.926Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 18:24 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.09 |
| 10-05 17:18 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Roraima? | BUY | 0.9199995594 | $1.42 |
| 10-05 08:20 | Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.81 | $1.07 |
| 10-04 22:34 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | BUY | 0.869999951 | $2.13 |
| 10-04 22:33 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | BUY | 0.8099999514 | $2.50 |
| 10-04 22:31 | Will Renan Santos finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.38 |
| 10-04 22:23 | Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9399999901 | $3.78 |
| 10-04 22:20 | Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9399999854 | $2.58 |
| 10-04 21:52 | Will Renan Santos finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.14 |
| 10-04 21:33 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.8399999677 | $2.08 |
| 10-04 21:33 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.8599999769 | $2.23 |
| 10-04 21:33 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.8499998692 | $1.95 |
| 10-04 21:32 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.8599999785 | $1.60 |
| 10-04 21:32 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.8499999361 | $1.33 |
| 10-04 21:10 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5599999661 | $1.32 |