what-are-the-odds

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

▲ CautionEdge per dollar1.7%

Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.

✓ ClearMarkets traded94

Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.

✓ ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position

Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.

✓ ClearSettled sample50 positions

Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.

? Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%

Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.

✓ ClearOpen concentration41.4% in top position

Open risk is spread across several positions.