mick3y
0x2e666b2b07ebab8a84f3b3268dd22c46e7e0607e
- Realised P&L
- $438.31
- Volume
- $48.4k
- Markets traded
- 854
- Open portfolio
- $977.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded854
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.830 | $961.26 | −$23.16 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.915 | 0.930 | $15.82 | +$0.26 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.30 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$321.10at 0.664Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$42.12at 0.990EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$42.10at 0.579Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$33.35at 0.477Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$27.06at 0.645Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 06:26 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.85 | $25.50 |
| 07-02 06:51 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.099 | $21.37 |
| 06-21 13:13 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.056 | $10.77 |
| 06-21 13:13 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.039 | $39.00 |
| 06-21 13:13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.117 | $44.43 |
| 06-19 14:16 | Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs | SELL | 0.44 | $7.85 |
| 06-18 04:02 | Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs | BUY | 0.2799999731 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 17:46 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1389999961 | $30.00 |
| 06-14 03:05 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.6299999926 | $30.00 |
| 06-14 01:44 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | SELL | 0.72 | $282.14 |
| 06-13 15:04 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.02 | $20.00 |
| 06-13 12:52 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.5799999959 | $40.00 |
| 06-13 12:39 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.64 | $200.00 |
| 06-13 05:39 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0789999954 | $15.00 |
| 06-13 05:39 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1989999931 | $20.00 |