0x2e3f57207794acbee1ed07eb7c6e5ac3ae9549ed
0x2e3f57207794acbee1ed07eb7c6e5ac3ae9549ed
- Realised P&L
- $-0.84
- Volume
- $18.65
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $5.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.898 | 0.905 | $3.13 | +$0.02 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.740 | $1.48 | −$0.42 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.895 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.875 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.65at 0.612Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
- +$0.17at 0.868Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?
- +$0.14at 0.927Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported in 2026?
- +$0.09at 0.936Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.06at 0.946Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 15:45 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299998419 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:28 | Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:04 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.11 |
| 10-04 20:39 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 16:10 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:38 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 06:43 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.90 |
| 09-03 11:40 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 11:30 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799995072 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 11:29 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 08:31 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.33 |
| 09-02 06:31 | Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999687 | $1.10 |
| 09-01 17:31 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.44 |
| 08-29 17:13 | Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.73 |