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0x2dee6b54c6a1fcfc6b2b0d83f172c1394ec67ffd
- Realised P&L
- $-0.54
- Volume
- $714.21
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $43.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.377 | $18.82 | −$3.67 |
| Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.930 | $18.60 | +$8.60 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.685 | $3.42 | −$0.28 |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.014 | $2.80 | −$1.95 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.660 | 0.016 | $0.16 | −$6.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.50at 0.200Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$0.30at 0.379Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
- +$0.04at 0.963Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Canva have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 17:45 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $1.01 |
| 10-01 16:56 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0236232386 | $3.14 |
| 10-01 16:52 | Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.31 |
| 10-01 16:52 | Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-01 16:41 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $10.81 |
| 10-01 16:23 | Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.91 |
| 10-01 16:23 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.781 | $4.05 |
| 10-01 16:15 | Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.08 |
| 10-01 15:21 | Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 22:03 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 22:02 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.038 | $1.32 |
| 09-30 21:57 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0574758195 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 21:26 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 15:49 | Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.44 |
| 09-30 15:47 | Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $6.90 |