Thrillofitall
0x2dcecb193daf0c313fa7575f250a7a639d93b793
- Realised P&L
- $-610.15
- Volume
- $52.2k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $360.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.019 | $130.00 | −$69.99 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.150 | 0.105 | $105.00 | −$45.00 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.185 | $102.13 | +$11.65 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · No | 0.032 | 0.024 | $14.88 | −$5.12 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.004 | $8.75 | −$16.25 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.97 |
| US inauguration on January 20? · No | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.73 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$257.87at 0.4192 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?
- +$233.33at 0.3002024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$231.92at 0.390House control after 2024 election?
- +$135.19at 0.270Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at his press conference?
- +$129.33at 0.436Will Trump say "Fake News" at his press conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 16:39 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $30.00 |
| 07-21 16:36 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.15 | $150.00 |
| 07-21 16:29 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.032 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 16:27 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.0311678192 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 08:23 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999971 | $37.53 |
| 07-17 08:19 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0133927004 | $40.58 |
| 07-17 08:15 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $22.96 |
| 07-05 02:00 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0649999973 | $22.00 |
| 07-05 01:59 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.034 | $47.60 |
| 07-05 01:58 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.065 | $21.97 |
| 07-05 01:50 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0239999995 | $50.00 |
| 07-05 01:46 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $25.00 |
| 07-05 01:41 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0349999997 | $100.00 |
| 05-26 02:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.014 | $8.73 |
| 05-26 02:52 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.906 | $80.63 |