0x2Db7211fBD60A7CeFC804eaB39a250Db46828f9b-1772535030056
0x2db7211fbd60a7cefc804eab39a250db46828f9b
- Realised P&L
- $5.0k
- Volume
- $222.5k
- Markets traded
- 292
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded292
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$737.87at 0.292Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
- +$709.55at 0.404Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$688.25at 0.309Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
- +$670.03at 0.367Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
- +$394.67at 0.077Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 20:43 | Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 09-19 20:41 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20? | BUY | 0.34 | $34.00 |
| 09-19 20:15 | Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? | BUY | 0.460636663 | $41.96 |
| 09-19 20:13 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.80 |
| 09-19 20:12 | Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.33 |
| 09-15 16:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | BUY | 0.811 | $162.20 |
| 09-15 16:58 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $24.00 |
| 09-15 14:29 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | BUY | 0.8 | $16.00 |
| 09-14 14:43 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $20.49 |
| 09-14 12:13 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $49.00 |
| 09-12 11:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $172.00 |
| 09-12 11:44 | Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 20? | BUY | 0.24 | $9.60 |
| 09-12 11:44 | Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 20? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 09-12 11:43 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.00 |
| 09-12 11:42 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $11.50 |