0x12e3A0501EC1e07143B428ebdeef3828C56a3bde-1757554179346
0x2db3880dd6bee54419b3307a0e4e86b198f427fd
- Realised P&L
- $0.20
- Volume
- $68.77
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $8.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.49 | −$0.01 |
| Moonshot publishes Kimi K3.1 Pro weights by November 4? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.910 | $1.30 | −$0.03 |
| Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.845 | $1.16 | −$0.06 |
| Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.600 | $1.16 | −$0.17 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.350 | $1.15 | −$0.52 |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $1.08 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.715 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.00at 0.250Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.75at 0.520Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?
- +$1.48at 0.630Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.41at 0.713Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$0.32at 0.759Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:52 | Will T1 win Worlds 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999854 | $1.10 |
| 11-01 20:50 | Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.50 |
| 10-28 21:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5099999695 | $1.67 |
| 10-28 21:17 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $1.67 |
| 10-27 17:48 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.689999725 | $1.33 |
| 10-27 17:44 | Moonshot publishes Kimi K3.1 Pro weights by November 4? | BUY | 0.9299996923 | $1.33 |
| 10-27 17:43 | Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? | BUY | 0.8899999343 | $1.22 |
| 10-26 02:28 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting? | BUY | 0.5199998796 | $1.90 |
| 10-26 02:24 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 02:21 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 02:21 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7069998713 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 02:11 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.00 |
| 10-25 20:58 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.65 | $0.94 |
| 10-22 23:23 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.619999771 | $1.57 |
| 10-22 23:21 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6899996964 | $1.00 |