bestsmart
0x2d8cdf8bb49f5b425ccedb91604eb453c2353e30
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $38.0k
- Markets traded
- 430
- Open portfolio
- $18.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded430
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.440 | $18.48 | −$6.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.00at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 16?
- +$124.26at 0.610Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 14?
- +$98.00at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 11?
- +$85.56at 0.560Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 9?
- +$59.09at 0.621Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 16:10 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 29? | BUY | 0.5664388361 | $25.20 |
| 09-28 22:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.4399999947 | $29.89 |
| 09-27 22:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.5 | $25.30 |
| 09-27 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 27? | BUY | 0.595813953 | $25.20 |
| 09-27 16:10 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 27? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $25.01 |
| 09-24 23:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.5619735737 | $24.94 |
| 09-24 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.5490157045 | $24.82 |
| 09-23 23:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.5642641693 | $23.20 |
| 09-21 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.4988870432 | $18.02 |
| 09-21 07:16 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.85 |
| 09-21 03:10 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.5819871795 | $7.26 |
| 09-20 23:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.5926993292 | $25.42 |
| 09-20 21:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.6178019587 | $11.36 |
| 09-19 04:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.6348212609 | $25.35 |
| 09-19 02:39 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.0703966302 | $20.00 |