StrangeFriends
0x2d4c7dc8ca5507e3f912529e010778d9e2aab848
- Realised P&L
- $-31.95
- Volume
- $38.6k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $6.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $6.33 | −$6.32 |
| Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.22 |
| Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.50 |
| Will another movie gross most in 2024? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Solana reach $150 in June? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.86at 0.740Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24?
- +$0.88at 0.820Senate control after 2024 election?
- +$0.06at 0.985Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 20:21 | Will Solana reach $150 in June? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.35 |
| 06-22 20:21 | Will Solana reach $150 in June? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.92 |
| 06-22 20:21 | Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $12.66 |
| 01-21 21:32 | Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? | BUY | 0.7399999906 | $11.00 |
| 10-21 08:42 | Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? | BUY | 0.2799999515 | $3.00 |
| 10-21 08:42 | Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend? | BUY | 0.9849999975 | $4.00 |
| 10-21 08:41 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | BUY | 0.0699999797 | $3.00 |
| 10-21 08:41 | Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? | BUY | 0.002 | $11.11 |
| 10-21 08:40 | Senate control after 2024 election? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $4.00 |
| 10-21 08:40 | Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | BUY | 0.001 | $13.22 |