53535fghf
0x2d42dfc27253f55667b8ef460f41ecb361aaf9dd
- Realised P&L
- $4.2k
- Volume
- $129.0k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $33.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.008 | $33.71 | −$29.50 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? · Down | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$740.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.190Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 11?
- +$1.5kat 0.510Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 12?
- +$1.0kat 0.500LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs
- +$779.22at 0.740Will Mantova 1911 win on 2026-01-11?
- +$86.00at 0.490Spread: Clippers (-6.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 03:19 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.957 | $629.71 |
| 07-02 02:02 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $631.02 |
| 06-15 01:50 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $512.75 |
| 05-25 03:33 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $124.00 |
| 05-15 08:41 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.7150099439 | $382.53 |
| 05-14 11:30 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.705 | $377.17 |
| 05-01 01:16 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.885 | $311.51 |
| 04-25 06:33 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.8819999998 | $310.46 |
| 04-13 01:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.615 | $12.30 |
| 04-13 01:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.615 | $7.38 |
| 04-13 01:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999892 | $11.68 |
| 04-13 01:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999842 | $7.99 |
| 04-13 01:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999863 | $9.22 |
| 04-13 01:51 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999879 | $10.45 |
| 04-13 01:51 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.615 | $12.30 |