0xdelphinium
0x2d11b3bcf6d94eb1d8da67ddd5e75679347ca043
- Realised P&L
- $-133.90
- Volume
- $39.7k
- Markets traded
- 928
- Open portfolio
- $204.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded928
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 15? · No | 0.984 | 0.992 | $192.45 | +$1.54 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 7°C or below on October 15? · No | 0.990 | 0.635 | $6.35 | −$3.55 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 7°C or below on October 16? · No | 0.990 | 0.560 | $6.16 | −$4.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.51at 0.975Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 14?
- +$11.75at 0.966Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 7?
- +$8.21at 0.990Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 30?
- +$7.37at 0.829Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on July 17?
- +$6.90at 0.980Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 14:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 7°C or below on October 16? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.89 |
| 10-14 14:09 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.99 |
| 10-14 09:23 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14? | BUY | 0.9742727273 | $10.72 |
| 10-14 09:22 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on October 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 10-13 16:09 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 15? | BUY | 0.985 | $124.11 |
| 10-13 16:08 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 15? | BUY | 0.985 | $30.54 |
| 10-13 16:08 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on October 13? | SELL | 0.999 | $92.91 |
| 10-13 16:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $30.97 |
| 10-13 16:07 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 15? | BUY | 0.9801351351 | $36.26 |
| 10-13 16:07 | Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.99 |
| 10-13 16:07 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on October 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 10-13 16:07 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on October 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 10-13 12:59 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-13 12:59 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-13 12:58 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |