rufus
0x2ce5a131bde66b0f9e466d6e52065734f5ace6a3
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $27.9k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $150.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.685 | $100.74 | +$0.74 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.365 | $32.02 | −$17.98 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.375 | $12.82 | +$0.85 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.280 | 0.285 | $5.09 | +$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$123.85at 0.210Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
- +$65.35at 0.457Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$61.11at 0.450Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?
- +$44.75at 0.728Will Trump attend UFC 327?
- +$42.11at 0.844Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 12:17 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999645 | $1.97 |
| 10-08 12:17 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October? | BUY | 0.5699999967 | $50.00 |
| 10-08 12:14 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 12:13 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |
| 10-08 12:12 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999948 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 12:53 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.016 | $3.20 |
| 04-10 12:53 | Will Trump attend UFC 327? | BUY | 0.947962928 | $100.00 |
| 03-27 17:53 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | BUY | 0.9400749657 | $95.00 |
| 03-27 17:53 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | SELL | 0.1864575029 | $14.50 |
| 03-27 17:52 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | SELL | 0.5554239709 | $39.67 |
| 03-06 16:17 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | BUY | 0.3599999954 | $28.00 |
| 03-06 14:52 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.7 | $50.00 |
| 03-06 14:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.019 | $50.00 |
| 02-18 11:59 | UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.7199999862 | $50.00 |
| 02-18 11:55 | Will Trump attend UFC 327? | BUY | 0.3374689765 | $20.00 |