MaiP120
0x2ce36bb42acf2e728934d3af049176f1ae6f966b
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $2.21M
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $576.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.0kat 0.356Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$5.1kat 0.615Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.9kat 0.370Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.375Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$1.2kat 0.389 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 19:32 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.0096883869 | $44.16 |
| 08-20 19:32 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.11 | $118.80 |
| 08-20 19:31 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1110723664 | $363.76 |
| 08-20 19:30 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.115 | $644.00 |
| 08-20 19:29 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1165947242 | $653.05 |
| 08-14 04:18 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1317586147 | $121.74 |
| 08-14 04:18 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.12 | $100.80 |
| 08-14 04:18 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.126 | $47.25 |
| 08-14 04:17 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.011 | $29.37 |
| 08-14 04:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $100.09 |
| 08-14 04:13 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1880542562 | $107.10 |
| 08-14 04:12 | Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0073986611 | $24.48 |
| 08-14 04:12 | Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.005 | $27.78 |
| 08-10 16:41 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.124 | $2.1k |
| 07-19 23:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999982 | $50.00 |