PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ilmari-kone

0x2cd48c12a2fcbba944abe967ff516270a5748e76

Realised P&L
$15.37
Volume
$1.6k
Markets traded
46
Open portfolio
$137.48

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded46
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample32 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 20:20Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?SELL0.971$38.84
11-01 16:41Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?SELL0.95$19.00
11-01 16:38Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?SELL0.94$28.20
10-31 18:19Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.87$21.75
10-31 18:14Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?BUY0.75$15.00
10-30 00:45Will Republicans win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats?BUY0.11$2.20
10-30 00:45Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats?BUY0.37$4.07
10-29 20:47Will Republicans win the Michigan Senate seat, and Democrats win Ohio?BUY0.8507016312$12.90
10-29 20:46Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 2?BUY0.0915989919$6.54
10-29 20:46Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?SELL0.47$18.80
10-29 13:13Democratic Senate odds <60% on October 31?BUY0.72$18.72
10-29 13:12Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?SELL0.86$18.06
10-29 13:12Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 2?BUY0.06$1.20
10-29 07:50Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on November 1?BUY0.12$2.40
10-29 07:46Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1?BUY0.2$4.00