ilmari-kone
0x2cd48c12a2fcbba944abe967ff516270a5748e76
- Realised P&L
- $15.37
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $137.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$77.24at 0.256Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?
- +$16.00at 0.200Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1?
- +$13.44at 0.150Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?
- +$11.94at 0.791Democratic Senate odds <60% on October 31?
- +$9.10at 0.040Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:20 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | SELL | 0.971 | $38.84 |
| 11-01 16:41 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | SELL | 0.95 | $19.00 |
| 11-01 16:38 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | SELL | 0.94 | $28.20 |
| 10-31 18:19 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.87 | $21.75 |
| 10-31 18:14 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 10-30 00:45 | Will Republicans win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats? | BUY | 0.11 | $2.20 |
| 10-30 00:45 | Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.37 | $4.07 |
| 10-29 20:47 | Will Republicans win the Michigan Senate seat, and Democrats win Ohio? | BUY | 0.8507016312 | $12.90 |
| 10-29 20:46 | Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 2? | BUY | 0.0915989919 | $6.54 |
| 10-29 20:46 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | SELL | 0.47 | $18.80 |
| 10-29 13:13 | Democratic Senate odds <60% on October 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $18.72 |
| 10-29 13:12 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $18.06 |
| 10-29 13:12 | Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 2? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 10-29 07:50 | Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on November 1? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 10-29 07:46 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |