michellenorton
0x2c7e887ada98596efccd56ffb6357355a8b0ef3d
- Realised P&L
- $5.02
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $97.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.730 | $22.73 | +$4.36 |
| Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Saitama Seibu Lions · Saitama Seibu Lions | 0.590 | 0.755 | $20.08 | +$4.39 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 21-27? · No | 0.770 | 0.695 | $19.97 | −$2.15 |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.675 | $12.84 | −$0.48 |
| Will Kevin Ashe win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.685 | $12.49 | −$2.10 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30? · No | 0.730 | 0.670 | $9.21 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.04at 0.470Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24?
- +$2.59at 0.810Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?
- +$2.39at 0.891Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?
- +$0.55at 0.696Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$0.15at 0.996Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:02 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.16 |
| 01-30 16:35 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.30 |
| 01-30 16:13 | Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.25 |
| 01-30 12:05 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.68 |
| 01-30 11:53 | Will Ethena hit $0.41 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.03 |
| 12-30 09:25 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.02 |
| 12-30 00:30 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $15.10 |
| 12-29 22:56 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.51 |
| 12-29 19:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998999987 | $52.27 |
| 10-30 22:19 | Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.14 |
| 10-30 18:06 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.53 |
| 10-30 18:02 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $29.32 |
| 09-29 16:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? | BUY | 0.998999974 | $12.66 |
| 09-29 05:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.78 |
| 09-29 04:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.06 |