lmontgomery
0x2c7412d320a6e3657447d4eb7047b9d0cebd6965
- Realised P&L
- $-35.32
- Volume
- $21.7k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $37.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 6? · No | 0.860 | 1.000 | $19.35 | +$2.70 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.705 | $17.79 | −$4.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.94at 0.721Nuggets vs. Suns
- +$3.68at 0.667Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring?
- +$2.53at 0.999Solana all time high by March 31?
- +$0.76at 0.725Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
- +$0.17at 0.992Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999592 | $8.64 |
| 01-30 15:49 | Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.53 |
| 01-30 15:34 | Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $17.93 |
| 01-30 14:55 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.10 |
| 01-30 14:23 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.72 |
| 12-30 11:29 | Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.79 |
| 12-29 19:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.992 | $21.20 |
| 12-29 19:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998999989 | $53.36 |
| 10-31 15:53 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.86 |
| 10-31 14:53 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.63 |
| 09-29 14:55 | Will Tencent have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.02 |
| 09-29 01:17 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.46 |
| 09-29 00:46 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.04 |
| 09-28 21:47 | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.23 |
| 09-28 20:43 | Will Solana reach $270 in September? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.01 |