0x2c62e862dc24b2a1f1eaa9639ef59c48308ae3ed
0x2c62e862dc24b2a1f1eaa9639ef59c48308ae3ed
- Realised P&L
- $11.21
- Volume
- $592.26
- Markets traded
- 215
- Open portfolio
- $4.71
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded215
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.799 | 0.922 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.395 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · No | 0.680 | 0.386 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
- +$5.06at 0.289Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will Trump say "Communication" during remarks at NASA?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:15 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:13 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7989999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:12 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:12 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:31 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 13:55 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:37 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:01 | Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:26 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:34 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:55 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 19:47 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 18:10 | Will El Salvador win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |