PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x2c4fa7DCAfbBB6a34CeB2827Ea69ABEbfea20307-1764442150620

0x2c4fa7dcafbbb6a34ceb2827ea69abebfea20307

Realised P&L
$-11.13
Volume
$5.7k
Markets traded
372
Open portfolio
$14.03

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded372
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2300.494$4.30+$2.30
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5200.725$2.79+$0.79
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.4200.820$1.95+$0.95
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4900.325$1.33−$0.67
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.3100.105$1.27−$2.48
Blue wave in 2026? · No0.1400.095$0.68−$0.32
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3700.105$0.63−$1.59
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.2600.050$0.38−$1.62
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.8400.160$0.38−$1.62
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.5600.148$0.26−$0.74
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.3290.015$0.05−$1.08
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1110.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.3580.000$0.00−$2.25
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? · Yes0.3070.000$0.00−$1.55
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1090.000$0.00−$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-21 05:51Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?SELL0.0111632653$0.14
05-21 05:51Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL0.04$0.10
05-19 20:58Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?SELL0.83$1.43
05-14 06:39Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY0.4$1.00
05-14 06:36Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?SELL0.21$0.72
05-12 20:44Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETSELL0.01$0.17
05-12 20:42Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETBUY0.6022430668$5.00
05-12 20:42Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETBUY0.599999976$5.00
05-11 22:59Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ETBUY0.32$1.00
05-11 22:58Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ETSELL0.87$1.33
05-11 22:57Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ETBUY0.65$1.00
05-10 21:46Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ETBUY0.8$1.00
05-10 18:16Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?SELL0.14$0.71
05-10 08:54Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ETSELL0.06$0.19
05-10 08:52Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ETBUY0.3099998295$1.00